分析師Parker：Fed量化寬鬆還沒結束 準備迎接QE4
第三輪量化寬鬆政策(QE)宣布十個交易日後，交易員仍反覆思索著這句話。周四公布的耐久財數據不佳，投資人當然預期股市將回檔，然而實際上，股市卻告上揚。
摩根士丹利銀行分析師Adam Parker說，投資人需要回到現實面。「幾周來，經濟數據一直疲弱，」他說。「投資人卻未在意，」供應管理協會(ISM)製造業指數，零售銷售，與貿易赤字數據，均黯淡無光，Parker認為伯南克根本無能為力。
他說QE就相當於Fed印鈔票，購買自己的債券。他認為很難想像這對徵人的企業，會有何不同。在他看來，沒有那家企業會因而徵人，都在等待財政政策明朗化。而這至少要到1月。美國經濟疲弱，歐洲情況明顯惡化，Parker因而認為Fed每月將購買的抵押貸款擔保證券，將超過400億美元。當被問到這是否相當於QE4，Parker說：「我們預期他們會做得更多，目前為止，他們所宣布的似乎還太少，不足抵銷疲弱的經濟數據。」
儘管他非常希望Fed不要採取這類行動，但Fed顯然不會領情。大多民眾擔憂的是，Fed大印鈔票，將會引發通貨膨脹。而實際上，伯南克想創造的就是通貨膨脹。通貨膨脹固然不是好事，但通貨緊縮才是經濟學家日夜擔憂的事。那麼投資人該做什麼？低調保守。企業獲利偏低，這讓Parker認為股價下跌難免。此刻，S&P 500本益比約為14倍。Parker說目前環境下，本益比12倍較為合理。這可是14%的差別，顯示S&P 500指數應報約1242點。
相關延伸閱讀 :
Although the US Federal Reserve has just announced its latest monetary easing move, QE3, as the market euphoria started to fade, analysts in turn started calling for a QE4. On 24 September 2012, Barron’s magazine reported that the global financial services company Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) was expecting the Fed to “dramatically augment” its stimulus programme before the year’s end.
On September 13, the Fed announced that it was going to purchase more mortgage-backed securities until the US unemployment rate reached acceptable levels. And while stock markets expectedly surged following the news of an open-ended third round of quantitative easing, Morgan Stanley notes that the near-term feedback from equity markets could prove disappointing. CNBC news quotes Adam Parker, chief equity strategist at the New York-based securities company, as saying that the Fed will soon find its new programme to be inadequate. “QE3 will likely be insufficient to significantly boost equity markets and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Fed dramatically augment this program (i.e., QE4) before year-end.”
As noted in the Barron’s article, one of the reasons why the new stimulus programme might prove to be insufficient is that while it is open-ended, it is in fact much smaller than the previous two rounds of quantitative easing. Mr Parker notes that based on previous QE effects, the S&P 500 may be expected to gain 15-25 basis points per week, as a result of the new round of QE. The projected increase, however, will not be enough to offset the average weekly market volatility of 2.3 percent. “QE3-related gains could cumulate to 3-4 percent return by year-end, but we see headwinds — negative earnings revisions, especially for 2013, and reappearance of tail risks — that could dominate and more than offset these potential gains,” comments Mr Parker.
CNBC news notes that Morgan Stanley is not alone in warning about the potentially insufficient effects of the new QE round. The macro economic research consultancy Capital Economics notes that there are too many factors such as the Eurozone debt crisis and the stand-off in the US fiscal cliff negotiations for the Fed’s monetary easing alone to have the desired effect.
Morgan Stanley recommends that investors favour stocks which have underperformed or “growth stocks”, as well as lower-quality equities. CNBC news on the other hand reports that Bob Janjuah, fixed income strategist at Nomura Securities advises traders to watch 1,450 on the S&P 500 as a critical level. According to Mr Janjuah, the impact of the Fed’s QE3 will wear off and the index will plunge to the 800 level. On September 25, Bloomberg reported that the S&P 500 fell for a third day or its longest decline in seven weeks, dropping by 0.2 percent to 1,456.89 at 4 p.m. New York time. Six out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 went down, with technology and commodity shares demonstrating the biggest losses. Nevertheless, the index is still up 16 percent in 2012.
留言列表
